2024 polls: Data and analysis don’t favour Mahama – Dela Coffie

A youth activist of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) and a former confidante of the late Former President Jerry John Rawlings, Mr Dela Coffie has said he believes former President John Dramani Mahama cannot win the 2024 elections for the NDC.

In his view, electoral data and analysis do not favour the presidential candidate of the NDC in last year's elections, going into the next elections in 2024.

He was reacting to Mr Mahama’s comment that the NDC has learnt useful and bitter lessons in the 2020 election.

Mr Mahama had said at a forum in Accra on Wednesday, November 11 after his thank-you tour of the region that “It has been barely a year since Ghanaians went to the polls to elect a President and two hundred and seventy-five Members of Parliament. Despite misgivings about the processes leading up to the election, we had reposed hope and confidence in what was a time-tested tradition of peaceful and fair elections since our democratic return in 1992. Our expectations proved to be misplaced as the worst-possible election in 29 years was delivered last year.” he said.

“The umpire of our elections, the Electoral Commission, for some reason, chose to sacrifice the much-heralded good image it had carved over the years. Our difficulties with the elections have been well-documented and I would belabour the point if I recounted them here. Suffice it to say that the kind of violence that claimed the lives of eight of our citizens, the misuse of security agencies to influence the outcome of elections in some constituencies and the uneven playing field that marred the 2020 elections, should never be allowed to recur.”

He added “We, in the NDC have duly learned useful, even if bitter lessons, from the entire episode. We are willing to engage the EC in constructive dialogue with a view to addressing the clear shortfalls of the present electoral process and fashion out one that meets the expectations of all if we are to avoid the unfortunate incidents of 2020. We have started this process by proposing a number of reforms to the electoral process and we continue to carry out consultations with stakeholders. We look forward to having an opportunity with the Electoral Commission to discuss these reforms and their possible implementation.”

In reaction, Dela Coffie said “Former President John Mahama last night in a concluding remark to his #thankGhana address delivered at Kempinski Hotel, averred that his immediate task is to help the NDC to REORGANISE and work together in unity to win election 2024 at the polling stations, in a manner that no man or woman can interfere with.

“I completely agree with the former president- A well organized NDC will inspire not only members, but attract the floating voters on the sidelines watching and looking for a more viable option to the status quo.

“Genuinely, the NDC must take lessons from 2016 and 2020 relative to what not to do. We must focus on organizing purposefully for victory in 2024. The party needs to position itself to start “measuring” the grounds so as to be purposeful with its choice of a Presidential candidate/running mate. The time has come for the NDC to exorcise the ghost of election 2016/2020 and confront the future.

“I’ve recently decided to do a little more research and actually pay attention to the data featuring the last two elections. And yes, I’d say the NDC is in for a hard time regardless of what the Mahama backers tells you.

“Just take a peek at the data of the 2016 and 2020 elections and you will appreciate the fact that NDC has a zero chance of winning the presidency in 2024 with Mahama – The electoral math is not in his favor. The evidence is there to read – Both the data and the analysis doesn’t favour Mahama.

“If you’re in doubt, check the 2020 Presidential vis-à-vis the Parliamentary results – the NDC lost so many seats with very small margins and those candidates still outperformed Mahama. On the other hand, NDC parliamentary candidates won and still outperformed Mahama in Adenta, Agona East, Akwatia, Assin North, Ayensuano, Ewutu Senya West, Jomoro, Nkoranza South, Jaman South, Wenchi, Upper Denkyira West, Cape Coast North, Asikuma Odoben Brakwa, Gomoa West, Okaikwei North and several other constituencies.

“Again, take the central region for instance, the home region of the NDC running mate, the party was outperformed so badly at the presidential level – President Akufo-Addo won 19 constituencies out of 23, leaving 4 for John Mahama. At the parliamentary level, the NDC won 13 constituencies as against 10 for the NPP.

“The broader question, frankly, is what accounted for the NDC losing 19 constituencies (Presidential) in the central region with Naana Jane Opoku Agyeman, an indigene on the ticket? And why did the parliamentary candidates outperformed Mahama?

“Well, the hard fact here is that even those Ghanaians who were obviously dissatisfied with Nana Akufo-Addo didn’t see John Mahama as the alternative.

“What astonishes me more is that Mahama has been so unpopular amongst his own “Northern folks”- they abandoned him in 2016 and again in 2020. Northern Ghana used to be the stronghold of the NDC. Not anymore. The North is no more an NDC stronghold under Mahama’s leadership. Then again, if you do the analysis of the data, you would realise that the NPP has started eating into NDC’s vote basket in the Volta Region. I mean, who would have thought that in AD 2021, the NPP would win a parlimentary seat in the Volta Region?

“I’m getting the impression the NDC is losing leverage in its traditional strongholds, but those who ought to know better don’t seem to have the self-awareness to realise it.

What’s interesting is that Mahama and his surrogates have played the NDC base like a fiddle and they will blame anyone but him for the party’s woes. The base relies on entertaining narratives rather than analysis, which is why they get annoyed when someone who understands data calls them out on their conclusions.

“The reality is that the NDC can’t do any better in 2024 with Mahama as the standard-bearer- He represents greyness and egoism with no redeeming vision, nor lofty objective. There’s no need to continue with any more of the mawkish pointlessness.

“It is time to start looking past our own preconceptions and start thinking about the collective interest of the NDC. And while it may be fashionable in the media to trot out more excuses for Mahama, perhaps party folks should be brave enough to look at their role in creating the conditions for the scary future that a lot of us are foreseeing.

“I honestly cannot fathom why any person of even nearly average intelligence and knowledge of data would try and proffer Mahama as some sort of viable and reasonable candidate, unless of course their goal is to deflect and obscure the REAL problem that the NDC is faced with.

“The NDC have a chance to take a step back from the abyss that Mahama has created in the last two elections.

“It’s not about one man’s greedy ambition or whatnot. It’s about whether the NDC will pay attention to the data or continue to discard it and chart a path that would eventually lead to the party reaping the whirlwind in 2024. I shall be back.”