Mahama leads Bawumia in latest poll ahead of 2024 elections

Ghanaian

The latest national opinion poll by Global InfoAnalytics has revealed that John Dramani Mahama, the flag bearer of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) for the 2024 presidential elections, is leading Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, the flag bearer of the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP), in the race to lead Ghana in 2025.

According to the poll,

Read full articleMahama leads with 54.3 per cent, followed by Bawumia with 34.9 per cent.

Other candidates, including Alan John Kwadwo Kyerematen of Movement for Change (M4C) and Nana Kwame Bediako of New Force Movement (NFM), received 7.5 per cent and 2.3 per cent respectively, with one per cent going to others.

The poll, released on April 8, 2024, using weighted polling data, revealed that among first-time voters, Mahama led Bawumia with 52 per cent to 33 per cent, while among non-first-time voters, Mahama led Bawumia with 55 per cent to 35 per cent.

In a surprising turn, Mahama has taken the lead in the North East Region with 58 per cent, while Bawumia garnered 26 per cent and Kyerematen 11 per cent.

However, Bawumia has regained the lead in the Ashanti Region with 54 per cent, followed by Mahama with 31 per cent, Kyerematen with 12 per cent, and Bediako with 2 per cent.

The poll methodology involved interviewing 6,128 voters, of which 5,928 responded to questions about their voting intentions for the December 2024 elections. The sample frame was based on the Electoral Commission’s 2023 voters register, with 30 per cent of constituencies from each region randomly selected.

While Mahama lost some ground in the Central Region, his dominance in the Greater Accra and Western regions stands at 66 per cent, with Bawumia at 28 per cent.

In the Oti Region, Bawumia has made significant gains and now stands at 42 per cent, with Mahama at 49 per cent.
The poll also indicated that 74 per cent of voters are unlikely to change their voting intentions, while 12 per cent are likely to change their minds.

Additionally, 48 per cent of respondents said the "24 Hr Economy" campaign promise would influence their vote, while 29 per cent cited "Digitalisation" and 6 per cent mentioned the "Great Transformational Plan (GTP)".

Regarding the economic crisis, 60 per cent of voters agreed that Bawumia is partly to blame, compared to 34 per cent who disagreed and 6 per cent who did not have an opinion.