The Federal Republic of Nigeria will be having its presidential and National Assembly elections on Saturday, February 25, 2023.
The West African country has for over a decade seen a lot of violence due to the activities of jihadist groups such as Boko Haram, who to date abduct and kill innocent civilians creating a lot of tension
As election day approaches, the tension in Nigeria has even heightened with fears of the elections turning into violence due to allegations that the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) government is doing all it can to rig the elections. The Nigerian army is even reported to have contemplated taking over the government in order to oversee the elections.
But is the fear that the Nigerian elections will turn into an outright conflict only a problem for the people of Nigeria, or should other countries in the West African sub-region, including Ghana, be concerned? This article highlights possible challenges Ghana is likely to face in the event that the Nigerian elections do not end peacefully.
Worsening economic conditions:
The Nigerian economy, with a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over $440 billion, is the largest economy in West Africa and one of the largest economies in all of Africa. So, any disturbance in Nigeria’s economy will certainly have ripple effects on a lot of countries, including Ghana.
Data provided by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) indicates that total trade in the region averages $208.1 billion, of which Nigeria alone accounts for approximately 76 percent, followed by Ghana with 9.2 percent.
The Ghana Export Promotion Authority (GEPA) figures also provide that, as of 2016, Ghana and Nigeria saw the highest level of trade relations as trade passed $1 billion.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria, disclosed in its third-quarter Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics that Ghana had become the country's biggest export destination for the first time after toppling India.
Ghana had 17.18 percent of the total Nigerian exports, followed by India with 14.67 percent, the Netherlands with 9.82 percent, Spain with 8.60 percent, and the United States of America with 6.28 percent.
So, should there be any disruption in the importation of goods from Nigeria, imagine the effects it will have on Ghana’s economy, which is already grappling with the depreciation of the cedi, high inflation rates, and the increasing cost of fuel products, among others. Not to mention what will happen to Ghanaian businesses that export their products to Nigeria.
Power crisis
Again, Nigeria supplies more than half of the energy needs, particularly gas, of countries in West Africa. Ghana, for instance, gets more than 50 percent of its gas needs from Nigeria through the West African Gas pipeline.
Over the past few years, Nigeria has cut the supply of gas to Ghana, and the effects were felt by every Ghanaian, particularly during the dreaded days of intermittent power supply, which became known as ‘dumsor’.
Nigeria once cut off the supply of gas to Ghana because insurgents sabotaged their gas pipelines. Another time, it shut off the supply of gas due to a strike by energy sector workers in the country.
Even though Ghana over the past few years has tried to wean itself from its dependence on Nigeria’s energy supply, ‘dumsor’ and the shortage of gas will once again stir Ghanaians in the face in the event of a conflict in Nigeria.
Ghanaians living in Nigeria
Official figures indicate that over 500,000 Ghanaians are currently living in different Nigerian cities and communities. However, this figure according to reports, accounts for only 50 percent of Ghanaians living in Nigeria because the remaining 50 percent (over 1 million) are undocumented.
So, a conflict in Nigeria will mean that all of these Ghanaians are likely to lose their jobs and possibly their lives, and their family back in Ghana who depend on the remittances they send are also going to be worse off.
Also, all of these Ghanaians returning to Ghana will certainly put pressure on the social amenities in the country, which are already suffering.
Possible refugee crisis
Nigeria is the most populous nation in Africa with over 200 million citizens. This means that any conflict in the country is likely to result in a refugee crisis in the sub-region.
Conflict often leads to the displacement of citizens of a country, who, for fear of losing their lives, seek refuge in other countries.
In the event of a conflict in Nigeria, most Nigerians are likely to seek refuge in Ghana because of the closeness of the two countries and also because of the language barrier, with Nigeria and Ghana being two of the few countries in West Africa that are English-speaking.
Already, it is estimated that more than 2 million Nigerians live in Ghana. So, these people are likely to host their families in Ghana. With the economic situation in Ghana, 2 million or more people trooping to the country will not augur well.
In conclusion, we are in this together with our Nigerian brothers and sisters. To all well-meaning Ghanaians who believe in God, let us pray for a peaceful, free, and fair election in Nigeria.
About Nigeria elections:
Nigerians will go to the polls to elect President Muhammadu Buhari’s replacement as he is serving out the second of his constitutionally permitted two four-year terms.
This will be the 6th election of Nigeria since the country returned to democracy in 1999 and 93.4 million eligible voters will be participating in it, according to aljazeeera.com.
In all, 18 candidates are contesting to succeed Buhari. The top contenders among them include Bola Tinubu, a two-term former governor of Lagos and a major stalwart of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) party as well as the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) Atiku Abubakar, a former vice president who is gunning for the position a record sixth time.
Also in the race are the Labour Party’s (LP) Peter Obi, a two-time former governor of Anambra, and Rabiu Kwankwaso, ex-defence minister and former governor of the northern hub Kano, on the ticket of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).
Meanwhile, catch the latest GhanaWeb TV Election Desk interview with Francis Addai-Nimoh, as he discusses his plans to become the NPP's flagbearer, below:
You can also watch this episode of People & Places on GhanaWeb TV below:
Top contenders in the 2023 Nigerian elections
