Five ways di war for Ukraine fit follow for 2023

Di conflict for Ukraine dey about to enta di second calendar year.

BBC ask different military analysts how dem tink say events wey dey on ground go be for 2023.

E fit end next year and how? Na on di battlefield or for di negotiating table? Or e fit continue on to 2024?

'Russia spring offensive go be key'

According to Michael Clarke, associate director of di Strategic Studies Institute, Exeter, UK

Those wey dey plan to invade anoda kontri anywia across di great Eurasian steppes must struggle to do am under di winter.

Napoleon, Hitler and Stalin all gatz to keep dia armies moving in di face of steppes winter.

And now with im invasion going backwards on di ground - Vladimir Putin dey prepare im forces for di winter to wait for new Russian offensive for spring.

Both sides need break but di Ukrainians dey more equipped and motivated to keep going, and we fit expect dem to maintain di pressure, at least for di Donbas region.

Around Kreminna and Svatove dem dey very close to big breakthrough wey go throw Russian forces 40 miles back to di next natural defensive line, close to wia dia invasion for begin for February.

Kyiv no go dey ready to stop wen di instant prize dey so great.

Ukrainian offensives fit however, pause for di south-west, afta di recovery of Kherson.

To cross ova to di east side of di Dnipro river to pressure Russia unprotected road and rail wey link to into Crimea fit dey too demanding.

But di possibility of Kyiv launching surprise new offensive no dey left out.

For 2023, di key factor wey go affect tins go be di fate of Russia offensive for spring.

Putin don reveal say about 50,000 of di newly mobilised troops dey already for di front.

Di oda 250,000 of those wey dem just mobilise dey train for next year.

No scope dey for anytin but more war until di large numbers of those new Russian forces settle for di battlefield.

Short and unstable ceasefire na di only oda prospect.

Putin don make am clear say im no go stop. And Ukraine don make am clear say dem still dey fight for dia life.

'Ukraine go win back dia land'

According to Andrei Piontkovsky, scientist and analyst wey dey stay for Washington DC

Ukraine go win by restoring completely dia territorial integrity by spring 2023 latest. Two factors na im lead to dis conclusion.

One na di motivation, determination and courage of di Ukrainian military and Ukrainian nation as a whole, wey pipo no expect for modern war history.

Di oda na di fact say, afta years of trying to keep quiet for Russian dictator, di West don finally grow up to dey aware of di big historical challenge wey dem dey face.

Di best way to give example of dis na through one recent statement by Nato General Secretary Jens Stoltenberg.

"Di price wey we pay dey in money. While di price wey di Ukrainians pay dey in blood.

"If authoritarian regimes notice say dat force bring reward, we go all pay much higher price. And di world go become more dangerous place for all of us."

Di exact timing of di Ukrainian victory wey dey for front go depend on di speed wey Nato go take deliver new game-changing package of military assault weapons (tanks, planes, long-ranged missiles).

I expect say Melitopol go become di key battle point for di coming months (maybe weeks).

Afta dem don take ova Melitopol, Ukrainians go easily move to di Azov Sea, and succefully cut off supply and communication lines to Crimea.

Russian giving up go dey formally agreed upon for technical tok-tok afta Ukrainian move forward to di battleground.

Di victorious powers - Ukraine, UK, USA - go shape new international security architecture.

'No end dey in sight'

Accodrding to Barbara Zanchetta, Department of War Studies, King College London

Vladimir Putin bin dey expect Ukraine to just quietly accept dia more powerful neighbour actions, with no involvement of oda kontries.

Dis big miscalculation don lead to long conflict, wey be like say no end in sight.

Di winter go dey difficult, as Russian attack on Ukrainian infrastructure go try to break di morale and endurance of di population wey already don dey tired.

But Ukrainian resilience don prove to dey amazing. Dem go stand firm. Di war go drag on. And on.

Di prospects for negotiation no dey bright.

For peace deal to likely happun, di main demands of at least one side need to change.

But no evidence wey dey ground to show say dis don happun, or dat e go happun soon.

How di end go take come, den?

Di costs of di war, both material and human, fit break di level of commitment of di Russian political elite. Di key go dey inside Russia.

Wars wey don happun in di past wey miscalculation na major element, like Vietnam for United States, or Afghanistan for di Soviet Union, only end dis way.

Domestic political conditions shift for di kontri wey miscalculate, making quitting- either "honourable" or not - di only beta option.

Dis fit only happun, however, if di West stand firm for dia support for Ukraine, no mata di increase of domestic pressures wey dey linked to di costs of di war.

Sadly, dis go continue to be very long political, economic and military battle of resolve. And by di end of 2023, e fit still dey likely to continue.

'No oda outcome except Russian defeat'

According to Ben Hodges, former commanding general, United States Army Europe

E dey too early to plan victory parade for Kyiv but all di strength dey with Ukraine now and I no get any doubt for my mind say dem go win dis war, probably for 2023.

Tins go move slow ova di winter but no doubt say Ukraine forces go dey beta able to cope dan Russia becos of all di winter equipment wey dey come from UK, Canada and Germany.

By January, Ukraine fit dey for position to begin di final phase of di campaign wey be di liberation of Crimea.

We know from history say war na test of power and test of logistics. Wen I see di determination of di Ukrainian pipo and sojas, and di way logistical situation dey improve quickly for Ukraine, I see no oda outcome but Russian defeat.

Di Russian pull-out from Kherson don partly lead me to dis conclusion.

Firstly as a psychological boost for di Ukrainian pipo.

Secondly as big embarrassment for di Kremlin.

And thirdly by handing Ukraine forces key operational advantage - all approaches into Crimea now dey within range of Ukrainian weapon systems.

I believe say di end of 2023 go see Crimea fully restored to Ukrainian control and sovereignty somehow.

Or agreement fit dey wey go allow Russia to phase out some of dia naval presence for Sevastopol… or maybe even to di end of di treaty (approximately 2025) wey don dey exist before Russia illegal annexation of Crimea.

Reconstruction efforts go begin on Ukrainian infrastructure along di Azov Sea coast, including di important ports of Mariupol and Berdyansk.

And di reopening of di North Crimean Canal wey dey divert water from di Dnipro to Crimea go be anoda important project to receive attention.

'Expect more of di same'

According to David Gendelman, military expert wey dey Tel Aviv

Instead of "how e go take finally end" dis na wetin each side go like to achieve for di next phase.

Only about half of Russia 300,000 mobilised troops already dey di fighting zone.

Di rest, togeda with di forces wey dey free for action afta Kherson withdrawal, give di Russians opportunity to launch offensive.

Di occupation of di Luhansk and Donetsk regions go continue but one major Russian breakthrough like a drive from di south to Pavlograd to encircle di Ukrainian forces for di Donbas dey less likely.

More likely na di continuation of current tactics - slow grinding of Ukrainian forces on narrow directions and slow advance, like for Bakhmut and Avdiivka areas, with possibly di same tactics for Svatove-Kreminna area.

Continuing targeting of Ukrainian energy infrastructure and oda attacks on Ukrainian end go complete dis tactic for di war.

Important Ukrainian forces also dey free afta Russian retreat from Kherson. For dem, di most strategically valuable direction na south, to Melitopol or Berdyansk, aiming to cut di Russian mainland corridor to Crimea.

Dis go be major Ukrainian victory, and dat na exactly why Russians dey fortify Melitopol.

Anoda option for Ukraine na Svatove - success there go endanger di whole northern flank of di entire Russian frontline.

Di big question na how many Ukrainian forces dey free and available for di offensive at dis point and which timetable General Zaluzhnyi get for im desk wey list how many new reserve brigades and corps wey dem dey build and wey go fit dey ready in one, two or three months from now, including manpower, armoured vehicles and heavy weapons.

BBC choose di above analysts for dia military knowledge and dia mix of perspectives.