How Russia withdrawal from grain deal wit Ukraine go affect Nigeria and oda African kontris

Russia on Tuesday 18 July withdraw from di deal dem strike wit Ukraine to allow dia enemy export grain through di Black Sea.

Di deal called Black Sea Grain Initiative wey dem sign for 22 July 2022 bin allow Ukraine export grain to different parts of di world witout interruption as di war between dem and Russia dey go on.

African and world leaders don already dey react to dis development sake of di impact wey e go get on di prices of food items wey dem dey use grain produce.

Director-General of di World Trade Organisation (WTO), Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, don express her disappointment to di withdrawal as she tok say Black Sea trade for food, feed and fertiliser dey important to di stability of global food prices.

Okonjo-Iweala wey express her disappointment on her Twitter account tok say na poor pipo and poor kontris dis withdrawal go affect pass.

Madam NOI:

As an African, use your specialised knowledge to talk to Colleagues in the Global Diplomatic Community to end the war in Ukraine - the war is has caused global inflation in Europe and Africa; and your own continent would be worse by it.

Rather than keep pumping…

— Favour B. Afolabi (@FBA_Online) July 18, 2023

How dis withdrawal go take affect Nigeria?

Nigerian investment analyst Victor Aluyi wey follow BBC tok on dis mata say dis development go affect di prices of food items sake of say many of di staples wey Nigerians dey chop na wheat dem dey take produce dem.

Aluyi say dis development go affect Nigeria sake of say di kontri no too dey grow wheat as dem rely more on importation.

Di investment analyst, however, say di development no go create too much kasala for global wheat supply wey go make di prices of staples for Nigeria skyrocket.

“Na sometin to keep an eye on. Di development still dey continue. But I tink regions like di United States, Latin America go fit pick up di slack in terms of supply wey Russia withdrawal from di deal go create,” Aluyi tell BBC Pidgin.

Answering question on weda dis move by Russia go make Nigeria shift attention away from grain and embrace alternatives, Aluyi say im no tink so as di kontri no get track record of similar approach in di past.

“We try di cassava initiative under President Goodluck Jonathan and e no work. We no get track record to dey innovative wit tins like dis, unfortunately,” Aluyi tok.

E say if prices of food items skyrocket for Nigeria, e no go be sake of dis development alone but factors like subsidy removal, among oda tins.

‘Dis na stab on di back’

Kenyan goment also express disappointment on Russia action as dem describe am as “stab on di back” for pipo wey dia kontris dey experience drought.

One minister for Kenya foreign affairs ministry, Korir Sing'Oei express di disappointment for one tweet.

Di kontri dey for region wey dey experience one of di worst droughts for decades.

More dan 50 million pipo across Somalia, Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan dey in need of food aid sake of successive years of failed rains.

The decision by Russia to exit the Black Sea Grain Initiative is a stab on the back at global food security prices and disproportionately impacts countries in the Horn of Africa already impacted by drought. https://t.co/QESZSiQJBd

— Korir Sing'Oei (@SingoeiAKorir) July 17, 2023

Why di grain deal dey important?

Ukraine na one of di world's largest exporters of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley.

Russia blockade mean say some 20 million tonnes of grain bin dey trapped for dia Black Sea ports. Dis one cause world food prices to go up.

E bin also threaten to cause food shortages for several African and Middle Eastern kontris wey dey rely heavily on imports of Ukrainian grain.

Wen Ukraine and Russia bin sign di deal and grain shipments start again, world food prices go down by roughly 20%, according to di UN Food and Agriculture Organization.

Why Russia dey refuse to renew di grain deal?

Wen di UN negotiate di deal between both kontris, dem tell Russia say dem go help dem increase dia exports of grain and fertilisers.

Although Western kontris don impose no sanctions on Russia's agricultural products, Russia tok say oda sanctions wey dem impose on dem don stop firms, international banks and insurers from dealing wit dia producers.

Russia ask say make dem reconnect dia state-owned agricultural bank, Rosselkhozbank, to di Swift fast payment system.

European Union bin bar all Russian banks from di Swift fast payment system for June 2022.

Di UN bin suggest say make Russia set up subsidiary of di agricultural bank, wey dem fit allow to use Swift - but Russia refuse dat option, and tok say e go take too long.

Oda suggested schemes, such as processing payments for food and fertiliser through di US bank JPMorgan Chase, or through di African Export-Import Bank, no also work.

Russia say dem go rejoin di deal if di West meet dia conditions.

Turkey President Recep Tayyip Erdogan say im go try to persuade Russia President Vladimir Putin to rejoin di deal wen dem meet for early August.

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