Global oil demand boosted by strong road fuel consumption

Rystad Energy’s comprehensive COVID-19 monthly report calculates the effect of the pandemic on our lives and offers updated estimates for global energy markets.

By monitoring recent developments, travel restrictions, quarantine obligations and new government policies, we are able to make frequent fact-based updates to our estimates.

Below are some of our forecasts from the April 2021 edition of the report, published on 15 April. Please note that some historical numbers may differ from month to month as governments revise their official figures.

Global oil demand:

Our latest forecast projects a 6% year-on-year increase in oil demand in 2021, climbing to an average of 95.4 million barrels per day (bpd) from 89.6 million bpd in 2020. Our estimates show that total oil demand in 2022 will continue to rise, reaching about 99.4 million bpd.

April 2021 demand is expected to land at 93.0 million bpd, climbing to 94.0 million bpd in May and 95.8 million bpd in June. Further ahead, total oil demand in the third quarter is expected to average 96.8 million bpd before ascending to 98.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

This update takes into account developments that have occurred up to and including Thursday 15 April.

Road fuel demand:

We believe that total global demand for road fuels will rise by 9 % in 2021, to 45.1 million bpd, from 41.3 million bpd in 2020. Road fuel demand is forecast to accelerate in 2022 to about 47.5 million bpd.

In April, road fuel demand is expected to average 44.2 million bpd globally, rising to 44.9 million bpd in May and 45.9 million bpd in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected to average 46.2 million bpd in the third quarter and 46.5 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

Jet fuel demand:

Among the various fuel sectors, jet fuel has been hit the hardest by the pandemic. We expect jet fuel demand to average 3.9 million bpd in 2021, rising by 21% from 3.2 million bpd last year, but still a far cry from pre-pandemic levels. Most of the recovery is expected during 2022, when jet fuel demand is expected to average 5.4 million bpd as air traffic returns to more normal levels.

Jet fuel demand in April is expected to reach 3.4 million bpd, rising to 3.6 million bpd in May and 3.9 million bpd in June. Further ahead, jet fuel demand is expected to average 4.3 million bpd in the third quarter and 4.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

Regional demand figures:

Total oil demand in the United States is now forecast to average at 19.4 million bpd in 2021, an 8% increase from 18.1 million bpd last year. In 2022, US oil demand is expected to climb to 20.0 million bpd.

Oil demand for the current month of April is forecast at 18.8 million bpd, rising to 19.1 million bpd in May and 19.6 million bpd in June. Further ahead, oil demand is expected to average 19.9 million bpd in the third quarter and 20.2 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

US road fuel demand is forecast to recover to 11.8 million bpd in 2021, a 10% rise from last year’s 10.7 million bpd. In 2022, road fuel demand should increase to about 12.2 million bpd.

Road fuel demand in April is forecast at 11.6 million bpd, rising to 11.9 million bpd in May and 12.1 million bpd in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected hold steady at about 12.2 million bpd in both the third quarter and the fourth quarter.

Total oil demand in Europe is now forecast to average 13.4 million bpd in 2021, a 6% increase from 12.7 million bpd last year. In 2022, European oil demand is expected to rise to 14.1 million bpd.

The monthly oil demand forecast for both April and May lies at 13.0 million bpd, climbing to 13.5 million bpd in June. Further ahead, oil demand is expected to average 14.0 million bpd in both the third and fourth quarters this year.

European road fuel demand in 2021 is expected to recover to 6.6 million bpd, a 7% rise from last year’s 6.1 million bpd. In 2022, road fuel demand is forecast to rise to 6.7 million bpd.

Road fuel demand in April is forecast at 6.5 million bpd, nudging up to 6.6 million bpd in May and 6.9 million bpd in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand in the third quarter is expected to average 7.0 million bpd before dipping to 6.8 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

Total oil demand in China is now forecast to average at 14.9 million bpd this year, a 7% increase from 13.9 million bpd last year. In 2022, Chinese oil demand is expected to rise further to 15.8 million bpd.

April oil demand is forecast at 14.8 million bpd, climbing to 14.9 million bpd in May and 15.1 million bpd in June. Further ahead, oil demand is expected to average 14.9 million bpd in the third quarter and rise to 15.3 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

Chinese road fuel demand in 2021 is projected to recover to 6.2 million bpd, an 11% rise from 5.6 million bpd last year. In 2022, road fuel demand is expected to increase to 7 million bpd. Road fuel demand in both April and May is forecast at 6.1 million bpd, rising to 6.3 million bpd in June. Further ahead, road fuel demand is expected to average 6.3 million bpd in the third quarter and 6.4 million bpd in the fourth quarter.

Other report findings:

Aside from energy-related projections, the COVID-19 Report also includes general estimates regarding the spread and development of the pandemic globally, including forecasts regarding how the virus will evolve in the most affected countries.

Our numbers are adjusted monthly to take into account all significant steps taken by governments to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.