Inflation to increase marginally to 21.6% in October 2024

Inflation is projected to rise slightly to 21.6% in October 2024, following a 110 bps increase to 21.5% in September.

IC Research notes the government's year-end inflation target of 13.0%-17.0% faces risks, likely keeping the policy rate at 27.0%.

Food inflation, driven by weather impacts, surged 300 bps to 22.1%, while non-food inflation dropped 60 bps to 20.9%, helped by lower petrol and diesel prices.

Concerns arise about election-related spending pressures and currency risks, pulling Ghana's real policy rate below peers like Kenya and Uganda.