Near-term outlook of inflation uncertain – Report

GCB Capital has highlighted an uncertain near-term inflation outlook despite recent disinflation trends.

While expecting disinflation to continue in the second half of 2024, the firm notes inflation pressures remain high and may reverse in August and Q4 2024.

The Ghana cedi's stabilization since June might not fully counteract inflationary impacts. The firm’s model predicts inflation may not drop below 20% even if exchange rate pressures ease.

Additionally, potential election-related spending could increase cedi liquidity and demand-side inflation.

GCB Capital foresees a remote possibility of a rate cut in July 2024, with more likely cuts in September and November 2024.