Non-OPEC oil supply to expand by 1.5 million barrels per day in 2023

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) says, its Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to expand by 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2023.

This is a slight upward revision from the previous assessment of 1.4mb/d.

This was gathered from OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for August.

Non-OPEC oil producers are crude oil-producing nations outside of the OPEC group and shale oil producers.

Some of the top oil-producing countries are non-OPEC nations and these include U.S. which is the number one producer as well as Canada and China.

The report said the main drivers of oil supply growth for 2023 were expected to be the U.S, Brazil, Norway, Kazakhstan Guyana and China, while the largest decline was expected from Russia.

It said there remained uncertainties associated with U.S shale oil output potential and unplanned maintenance in 2023.

According to the report, for 2024, non-OPEC oil production is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment.

“For 2024, the main drivers for liquids supply growth are expected to be the U.S, Canada, Guyana, Brazil, Norway and Kazakhstan, mainly due to existing project ramp-ups.

“The largest declines are expected from Mexico and Azerbaijan.

“OPEC NGLs and non-conventional liquids are forecast to grow by 46 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in 2023 to an average of 5.4 mb/d and by another 65 tb/d to an average of 5.5 mb/d in 2024,” it said.

The report said in July, OPEC-13 crude oil production decreased by 836 tb/d month-on-month (m-o-m) to an average of 27.31 mb/d, according to available secondary sources.

The report further revealed that its World Oil Demand in 2023 was expected to grow by 2.4 million barrels per day (mb/d), unchanged from July’s assessment.

It said upward revisions to the first quarter of 2023, based on actual data received for the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) America and OECD Europe, was completely offset by downward revisions to 2Q23, mainly in Europe and Other Asia.

“In the OECD region, oil demand in 2023 is anticipated to rise by 74 thousand barrels per day (tb/d), to an average of 46.0 mb/d.

“While in the non-OECD region, total oil demand is anticipated to rise by nearly 2.4 mb/d, to average 56.0 mb/d,” the report said.

It stated that for 2024, world oil demand was forecast to grow by a healthy 2.2 mb/d, unchanged from the previous assessment.

According to the report, the OECD is anticipated to expand by about 0.3 mb/d, with OECD Americas contributing the largest increase.

It added that the non-OECD was set to drive growth, increasing by around 2.0 mb/d, with China, the Middle East and Other Asia contributing the largest share, with further support from India, Latin America, and Africa.