World Bank predicts oil price rise amid geopolitical tensions

According to the April 2024 World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, oil prices are expected to rise this year, with Brent crude projected to average $84 per barrel, up from $83 per barrel in the previous year.

This increase reflects heightened geopolitical tensions and a tight supply-demand balance in the market.

The forecast assumes no further escalation of conflicts, anticipating

Read full articlea slight decline in average oil prices for the remainder of 2024 as recent risk premiums stabilize. Looking ahead to next year, oil prices are predicted to trend somewhat lower, averaging $79 per barrel, as supply conditions improve.

The report highlights that oil production is set to expand by 0.8 mb/d this year, driven primarily by increased supply from the United States, while OPEC+ production is expected to decrease.

However, consumption growth is forecasted to decelerate to 1.2 mb/d this year, with emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) driving all net demand growth.