Africa’s 3rd term debate: Is Rwanda too good to be true?

On the back of recent coups on the continent, rigorous discussions within the corridors of power within African capitals have swung between vocalized censure of coups and quiet musings of what can be done to pre-empt them rather than serving a fire-fighting purpose of waiting for disaster to strike before responding.

One such African leader who has been head-on and frontal in his proposition of a ban has been Ghana’s President and Chairperson of ECOWAS Heads of Governments His Excellency Nana Addo Dankwa Akuffo Addo.

In a recent interview, the Chair of one of Africa’s biggest blocs ECOWAS said:

“It’s high time we outlawed third-term presidential mandates in all ECOWAS countries. I feel strongly that it is something we should do to prevent incidents like what we are witnessing in Guinea now. It will go a long way to ensure the smooth transition of power.”

Nigeria’s President His Excellency Muhammadu Buhari also states that:

“It is important that as leaders of our individual member states of ECOWAS, we need to adhere to the constitutional provisions of our countries, particularly on term limits. This is one area that generates crisis and political tension in our sub-region”

For every observer of the geopolitics on the African continent, such words coming from the leader of one of Africa’s most uninterrupted countries, Ghana, as well as the leader of the most populous nation on the continent, Nigeria, imbue confidence that for once a top-down approach on a shared principle across the board has oxygen to give it life. But wait a minute, are 3rd term bids in themselves egregious enough to warrant a complete ban by regional blocs and the continental bloc of AU?

This debate opens up various lines of inquiry considering how successful the idea has been in one unique African country, Rwanda, that has grown into a giant from the ashes of war because of the genius of a 3rd-term leader I will discuss shortly. But before then have we all considered what leadership in an African traditional setting for centuries if not millennia has been?

Kings and chiefs had no term limits before the advent of democracy on the African continent by the white man…

A careful study of leadership or governance on the black continent of Africa points to a lack of appetite to change the man at the top unless he engages in a taboo practice. This tradition seems to have accompanied African leaders into their presidential palaces.

The Emir of Kano, Ado Bayero was on his throne for about half a century. Kings have no term limits in this part of the world.

The Otumfuor in Ghana is in his third decade as King. Only death is seen as an end to the exercise of power and authority.

From Kwazulu Natal traditions of South Africa to the beautiful governance traditions of Nubia, Africa is alien to changing leaders only in the name of term limits. The only difference between our kings and elected presidents seems to be smart suits with flying ties. But beneath that polished Western outlook is still a desire to perpetuate the notion that in African culture, when you are the enstooled or enskinned chief, you remain chief till death.

This seems to have created great consternation and complication in the few decades since the departure of Western colonial masters for emerging African leaders.

Crave for 3rd terms one too many….

In Africa, a seemingly growing number of attempts by presidents to overcome or abrogate term limits, or make them otherwise ineffective, has ignited a debate about the significance of constitutional engineering, and its implications for the rule of law, democracy, and the nature of politics in general.

In light of recent instances of third-term bids, the hypothesis about the institutionalization of power in Africa and the assumption that, over the past two decades, African politics has experienced a fundamental change away from “big man” rule towards the rule of law. Based on a comprehensive stocktaking of the state of play of term limits and third-term bids, the continent needs to analyze broader trends and outcomes of legal and constitutional engineering.

An analysis focusing exclusively on formal institutions and procedures misrepresents the extent of political change by ignoring power and authority in many African countries.

While the growing significance of formal institutions is undeniable, the fact suggests that it matters more as a legitimization of the power of political leaders than as a constraint to it.

Term Limits and the Institutionalisation of
Power Hypothesis……

The spreading of political liberalization across Africa since the early 1990s has in many countries proven conducive to the flourishing of formal institutions of political life, and sometimes even to the rule of law (Cabanis and Martin 1999). In a pioneering article, Posner and Young (2007) described this process as the “institutionalization of power.”

The term serves to describe a shift away from the clientelistic, opaque decision-making of “big men” rulers in Africa’s presidential, neo-patrimonial systems. In such systems, formal political institutions were insignificant, as rulers had the discretionary power to ignore or override formal institutions and laws, turning government into a highly personalized exercise, guided by the interests and whims of the ruler and his entourage.

Posner and Young argue that significant political changes since 1990 have subjected African rulers to more constraining formal institutions such as competitive elections, judicial institutions, constitutions, laws, and regulations than they faced in the past, in terms of both politics and policymaking.

Despite these institutional roadblocks to longevity in power, leaders on the continent have devised shrewd means to change the rule of the game to remain in power even when they are too weak to walk or get off a wheelchair.

Burundi

In August 2015 Pierre Nkurunziza was again sworn in as president of Burundi. His successful attempt to secure a contested third term plunged the country into a severe crisis.

Senegal

Forner President Abdulahi Wade surprised his nation when he announced plans to stand for a third term, saying the two-term limit did not apply to him because he was first elected in 2000 before the constitution officially took effect.

To top it all off, President Wade also attempted to amend the constitution again, this time for his own good, by lowering the votes required to win the presidential election from 50 to 25 percent. He later backed down from the amendment, after thousands of young people took to the streets in protest

Sudan

An umbrella group of 26 political parties in Sudan called on President Omar al-Bashir not to re-nominate himself for a third term in elections in 2020.

The move came amid nationwide protests that rocked the country for weeks over the government’s apparent inability to rein in rampant inflation and address acute shortages of essential commodities. He was eventually toppled.

Congo Brazaville

President Denis Sassou Nguesso was re-elected president of Congo-Brazzaville after the constitution was amended to allow him to seek a third term.
He won 60% of the votes, against 15% for his nearest challenger, the interior minister announced.

The opposition said the vote was marred by "massive fraud".

Silver Lining in 3rd Terms…..America and Rwanda

On July 18, 1940, Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who first took office in 1933 as America’s 32nd president, was nominated for an unprecedented third term. Roosevelt, a Democrat, would eventually be elected to a record four terms in office, the only U.S. president to serve more than two terms.

Even though some will argue that Roosevelt was a wartime president, it is quite informative that the world’s leading democracy found wisdom to skew the constitution to keep him as president. Is Africa wrong to keep Rwanda’s Paul Kagame who has built his nation from the ashes of war?

Why Kagame's bid to serve a third term made sense for Rwanda…..

More than 98% of Rwandans voted in a referendum to lift the presidential term limit so he could run again.

Kagame’s decision not to step down prompted a barrage of criticism. Western governments, media outlets, and human rights groups have painted him with the same brush as other African ‘strongmen.’ Some Westerners have called him a ‘benevolent dictator’. Would they apply the same yardstick to the US President Roosevelt who remained in power till his fourth term when he died or such demonization is only reserved for African leaders?

Rwanda’s situation is unique. Unlike the third-term fever afflicting other countries on the continent, Rwanda is not mired in corruption and economic stagnation.

During the past decade, its economic growth has averaged around 7% per year, maternal and child mortality has fallen by more than 60% and near-universal health insurance has been achieved. The country is also now considered one of the safest and least corrupt in sub-Saharan Africa.

And in just three years, the percentage of people living in poverty dropped from 44.9% in 2011 to 39.1% in 2014. In this year of 2021, the prospects of economic growth for the people of Rwanda under Kagame are even brighter.

Conclusion

Even though there is a growing chorus within the corridors of power in Africa for legislation to ban 3rd-term bids on the continent, the Roosevelt example in the United States and the stellar performance of Rwanda’s Paul Kagame call for a serious meditation on the issue and the fact that even though democracy offers an equal opportunity for people who deem themselves competent to aspire to the highest office of a country despite their ethnicity, creed or not being part of royalty, evidence abounds that frequent changes of good leaders on the continent have affected the long term development of Africa.

It is, therefore, safe to say that ‘if a leader is good enough and has wide acclaim from the larger population, multiple terms are NOT in themselves a BAD idea after all……’