Does Nana Akufo Addo have a case?

The defeated New Patriotic Party and its presidential candidate in the December 2008 elections have been blaming their narrow loss on irregularities in the Volta Region, the electoral “world bank” of their bitter rivals, the NDC. This blame story has been repeated as many times and in as many places as would put its veracity beyond doubt. Since the commentaries we have heard so far have come from interested parties, I think an independent perspective on this important subject will be useful.

I have no doubt in my mind that if the NDC had lost the election, they would also have blamed it on irregularities in the Ashanti Region, the traditional stronghold of the NPP. This makes it tempting for such claims to be seen as part of the hypocrisy which has become part of our political menu. Some of us have observed the political process long enough to know that none of these two parties is an electoral saint. Both the NPP and the NDC will always try the hardest they can to gain unfair electoral advantage from any flaws in our electoral system. It is a game of unruly wits in which ruling parties always have the advantage. That is why we have opposition parties consistently crying foul in the run-up to any election. It is also the reason why it would sound quite bizarre for a ruling party to accuse an opposition party of winning an election in Africa through rigging.

Be that as it may, it is a fact that both parties went into the run-off very suspicious of each other mainly because the voters register was widely acknowledged to be bloated. The NPP suspected that there would be fictitious increase in voter turn out in the Volta Region whilst the NDC could also see ghosts resurrecting in the Ashanti Region to swell up the voter numbers there. It did not therefore surprise us when both parties started trading accusations of electoral malpractices in the other’s stronghold. Independent electoral observers did confirm some irregularities and specifically sited the Ashanti Region among the areas guilty of a relatively higher incidence of the offence. Since none of the parties complained about the first round results, I believe an analysis of the run-off gains and losses will help provide clues on possible electoral areas of concern.

Nana Akufo Addo (NPP) Prof. John E. Atta Mills (NDC)

Region Run-off 1st Round Gain / Loss Gain / Loss% Run-off 1st Round Gain / Loss Gain / Loss%

Ashanti 1,438,820 1,210,751 228,069 18.8% 479,749 437,243 42,506 9.7%

G. Accra 798,556 768,465 30,091 3.9% 953,086 870,011 83,075 9.5%

Eastern 536,366 489,493 46,873 9.6% 396,277 353,350 42,927 12.1%

BA 384,237 403,804 -19,567 -4.8% 408,029 380,515 27,514 7.2%

Western 384,028 413,020 -28,992 -7.0% 414,144 379,822 34,322 9.0%

Central 325,454 313,665 11,789 3.8% 378,975 344,860 34,115 9.9%

Northern 311,774 303,326 8,448 2.8% 500,953 460,455 40,498 8.8%

U. East 117,477 118,454 -977 -0.8% 223,994 188,395 35,599 18.9%

Volta 102,173 102,368 -195 -0.2% 630,899 548,999 81,900 14.9%

U. West 81,561 90,136 -8,575 -9.5% 134,926 106,995 27,931 26.1%

4,480,446 4,213,482 258,185 6.1% 4,521,032 4,070,645 450,387 11.1%

As can be seen from the table, the NPP made an exceptionally abnormal gain in the Ashanti Region but experienced erratic fortunes across the rest of the country. It actually made significant losses in two regions and minor losses in three others. It incidentally made the least loss in the Volta Region. The NDC was on the other hand consistent in making significant gains in all the 10 regions of the country. Given also that the parties complained only about the Ashanti and Volta results, it is safe to assume that they did not have problems with results from the eight other regions. It will therefore be worth our while to take yet a closer look at how the two parties fared in their respective strongholds where they stand accused by their opponents of complicity in irregularities.

The NPP increased its votes in the Ashanti Region by a whooping 228,069 which represented an 18.8% increase over the first round number and 9.8% of the 2,314,686 voters on the Region’s electoral roll. The NDC on the other hand increased its votes in the Volta Region by 81,900, a 14.9% increase over the first round votes and 8.1% of the 1,012,122 registered voters. Voter turnout in the Ashanti Region was the highest in the country at 83.3% whilst Volta Region came third with a 73.1% turnout, which was incidentally very much in line with the national average of 72.9%.

From the above statistics, given that we went into the elections with a bloated voters register, the Ashanti Region would appear to have generated higher polling results from its cemeteries than the Volta Region. Ashanti ghosts thus appeared to have been more active in the run-off elections than their Volta counter parts. What then is the fuss about the Volta Region? Is it meant to deflect attention from the Ashanti Region so that the ghosts can have a quiet passage back to their graves?

I read Elizabeth Ohene’s story about what happened to her brother in the Volta Region. If it is true, then it is a criminal offence which has to be condemned by all well meaning Ghanaians and investigated thoroughly by the police. I do not support any form of violence against anybody but I also don’t think one criminal incident provides sufficient basis for arriving at the kind of hasty generalizations the NPP seems to be making about the Volta Region. I am happy they have stopped repeating the lies they initially peddled about the death of their poling agents in the region after the Regional Police Commander came out to say emphatically that nothing of the sort happened. I hope they will, with time, stop repeating all the other lies about the region and rather do a proper soul searching to find the root causes of their painful electoral defeat. I appreciate how far we have come from 1992 in terms of the country’s electoral reforms. Our electoral system is arguably the most credible in Sub-Saharan Africa. I however believe we should still make it a topmost national priority to continue improving upon what we have until we get to a level where losers will have very little basis, if any at all, for complain. Our clarion call should be “seek ye first a perfect electoral system and all other things shall follow”. Let us not go into the 2012 elections on an electoral platform that will still be replete with the flaws in our current system.

What shall it profit us if we build schools, hospitals, roads, jubilee houses and attain 100% employment only for the consequences of a faulty electoral system to blow them up in flames? For me, building a robust and fraud-resistant electoral system is the most important foundation on which we can build the better Ghana promised by the new administration. I therefore expect this to feature prominently on President Mill’s “to do list” and I am waiting patiently to hear from him on this matter. What about biometric voting in 2012? Let us think about it.

Long Live NPP! Long Live NDC!! Long Live Ghana!!!

Mathias Dorfe