Election 2024: Latest Global Info Analytics polls gives Mahama 53.2% lead

The latest opinion poll by Global InfoAnalytics for the 2024 elections has shown flag bearer of the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC), John Dramani Mahama, has taken a huge lead over the governing New Patriotic Party’s candidate, Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, in the race to be the next president of Ghana in January 2025.

With almost eleven months to the elections, John Mahama leads in the poll with 53.2% while Dr Mahamudu Bawumia trails with 29.6%. Meanwhile, Former Trade and Industry Minister, Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen, who defected from the NPP to run as an independent candidate under the “Movement of Change”, had 7.7% support of voters.

While John Mahama's latest poll figures resulted in a significant rise from the 48.3% he garnered in a similar conducted in October 2023, Vice President Dr Bawumia saw a marginal climb from the 28% he recorded in the same period with Alan Kyerematen’s 7.7% being a significant drop in the 11.3% he was projected to get from the October poll.

Additionally, nearly 4.2% of voters in the latest poll say they intend to vote for other candidates, a drop from the 7% in the earlier poll, whilst 5.3% remain undecided on their choice for the 2024 election.

Among first-time voters, John Mahama leads with 51%, with DMB projected to get some 25% and AKK 8%. 7% of first-time voters intend to vote for other candidates while 9% are undecided.

The latest poll also has Mr Mahama now leading in all regions except the North-East region where Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia’s advantage has now narrowed. According to Global Info Analytics, although JDM’s lead in the Ashanti and Eastern regions could be an outlier in the polls, the NPP’s poor performance may reflect growing concern about voter apathy in those regions.

Former President John Mahama’s 24-hour policy according to polls is the most popular amongst voters. When voters were asked about the 24-hour Economy, Blue Economy/Digitization and Great Transformational Plan, which of those slogans/policies has caught their attention? Approximately 50% said the 24-hour Economy, 25% said Blue Economy/Digitization, 8% said GTP and 17% said none of them.

The poll also predicts that the NDC is on course to form the majority in parliament, as the generic poll predicts 52% of voters plan to vote for NDC candidates in the 2024 elections, up from 46% in October 2023 while the NPP is currently on 31% compared to 38% recorded in October 2023.

On the question of whether NPP can break the eight, 60% of voters said NPP will not break the eight compared to 21% who said yes, they will and 19% did not have an opinion.

The poll was conducted between 22nd- 30th December 2023 with a sample of 5,881 respondents in all 16 regions and across 82 constituencies.