Fitch Solution predicts electoral victory for NDC’s Mahama in election 2024

United Kingdom-based research and data firm, Fitch Solution is predicting electoral victory for National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer John Mahama in the December 7 presidential election.

Fitch in its latest publication on election and risk-related issues in Africa said the current state of the economy will play a significant role in the choice of voters in December.

In a webinar to announce the outcome of its latest research, Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk Analyst Mike Kruiniger said their finding put the largest opposition party candidate ahead of Vice President and NPP flagbearer Dr Mahamudu Bawumia.

Kruiniger emphasised their anticipation of policy continuity prevailing in the region, with most incumbents expected to secure victories and retain their majorities.

Despite this overarching trend, the research forecasted significant changes in key markets, specifically highlighting South Africa and Ghana.

“In Ghana likewise, we believe anger over living standards is giving opposition candidate John Mahama a lead in the polls. This marks a shift away from the incumbents preferred successor, that being current Vice President Bawumia.

“So again, although we do expect policy continuity to prevail, some important changes will occur and we'll be monitoring these closely,” he said.

In response to the challenges faced by the NPP, Mike Kruiniger stated that despite the government's confirmation of its commitment to implementing fiscal reforms in the 2024 budget, they anticipate significant public expenditure overruns ahead of the December election, particularly given that the NPP trails behind in the polls.

“So since the start of the century, public expenditure as a share of GDP increased by an average of three percentage points during election years. And I think that really reflects the government's tendency - for example, subsidise utilities or implement social welfare programs, really to garner public support in the run-up to general elections.”

“So while these expected expenditure overruns will lead to a widening of the budget deficit in 2024, it will also support households financially, so driving up domestic demand that way and also supporting headline economic growth,” he said.

Commenting on the likely winner of the December general elections, Mike Kruiniger emphasised that their core view maintains the opposition NDC is best positioned to secure a victory.

He explained that a closer examination of polling data suggests that the economy and economic management will be central issues for voters during the election.

This, he said is expected to provide the NDC with an advantage, considering that the recent economic downturn occurred under NPP leadership.

“In addition to that, recent polls um around voting intentions give John Mahama, the leader of the NDC, a favorable lead. So for further supporting our view that the NDC victory is most likely in December,” he said.