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Alby News Ghana Blog of Thursday, 13 April 2023

Source: Alby News Ghana

In recent polls, Mahama is ahead of Alan Bawumia and Duffour.

The candidates and their supporters' main concern has been which candidates have the national appeal to outperform candidates from the two divides as the two major political parties have internal elections to choose their presidential nominees for the 2024 general elections. Former President John Dramani Mahama is facing up against Kojo Bonsu, a former mayor of the Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly, and Dr. Kwabena Duffour, a former finance minister and governor of the Bank of Ghana. Both men are supporters of the National Democratic Congress (NDC).

In the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primary, two candidates—Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen and Vice President Alhaji Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia—have emerged as the front-runners from a field of nine contenders, though MP for Assin Central Kennedy Ohene Agyapong has recently pushed to change the two-man race to a three-horse race. With experts speculating on whether Ken Agyapong's surge has the ability to upset the Alan-Bawumia two-pronged contest, this is presenting a pretty fascinating viewpoint on the NPP race.

Internal election for the presidency

John Dramani Mahama, the former president, will easily defeat his two other leading rivals, Dr. Kwabena Duffour and Kojo Bonsu, in their respective presidential primaries before the candidates square off for the major national elections, predicts Global Info Analytics (GIA), a highly regarded research organization.In both the 2016 and 2020 elections, which the New Patriotic Party won, GIA was at the vanguard of electoral forecasting. The GIA surveys are conducted from March 31 to April 9, 2023.

Thus, it can be inferred that GIA sought to learn what would have happened in the two parties' presidential primaries before the general elections. According to research by Global Info Analytics, former president John Dramani Mahama, the presidential candidate for the National Democratic Congress, is far ahead of the other two front-runners. In this year's NDC primary, it does appear that a similar tale to that of 2018 will play out. With a commanding 94 percent of the vote in 2018, Mr. Mahama easily defeated the other five contenders, leaving Prof. Joshua Alabi and the others to fight it out for the final six percent.

According to GIA polls, Mr. Mahama is once again in a dominating lead of 93 percent in the lead-up to the NDC primaries on May 13 this year, as opposed to Dr. Duffuor's four (4) and Kojo Bonsu's three (3) percent, respectively. However, as the GIA's search indicates, there is no obvious winner in the NPP primary, leaving the race open for three candidates: Alan Kyerematen, Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia, and Kennedy Ohene Agyapong. Even a run-off for the NPP primary is mentioned in the study, with a prediction that the former trade minister Alan Kyerematen may win with a 54 percent victory.

According to polls, Vice President Bawumia would narrowly defeat Alan in the NPP primaries, with Ken Agyapong coming in third place. This year's NDC primary will take place on May 13; the NPP will select a presidential nominee later in November 2023.

(Presidential) General Elections in 2024

The former president Mahama leads Mr. Alan Kwadwo Kyerematen of the NPP in the national election with 54 percent to 40 percent, while six percent say they will cast their ballot for a different candidate. According to the same polls, President Mahama has a 55 percent to 38 percent advantage over Vice President Dr. Mahmudu Bawumia. Seven percent of respondents said they would vote for someone else, but they did not specify who they would choose. Kennedy Ohene Agyapong of the NPP, who is trailing Mr. Mahama 55 to 38 percent, is one contender whose support has skyrocketed in an unexpected way. Kennedy Agyepong has a significant lead against Mr. Mahama as of January, 31 to 63 percent.

From the 2020 voter or electoral register, which the Global Info Analytics used as its large frame, a total of 5,836 respondents were sampled. GIA states that "was randomly selected and allocated the regional quota based on total voters in each of the constituencies." Thirty (30) percent of the constituencies from each region. As a result, respondents from all sectors were chosen at random from 82 constituencies across Ghana's 16 regions.