Domestic food price inflation remains high around the world – World Bank report

The World Bank Report shows that domestic food price inflation remains high globally, with 64.7% of low- and middle-income countries experiencing higher than 5% inflation, 81.4% of lower-middle-income countries, and 84% of upper-middle-income countries experiencing double-digit inflation. High-income countries are most affected in Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia. The agricultural, cereal, and export price indices closed 1%, 4%, and 1% higher than two weeks ago. Maize, wheat, and rice prices all increased in the last two weeks, with prices closing 2%, 7%, and 4% higher, respectively. On a year-on-year basis, maize and wheat prices are 22% and 41% lower, while rice prices are 14% higher.

The May 2023 edition of the AMIS Market Monitor highlights the possibility of an El Niño pattern, with a 62% chance of development during May to July, 75% chance between June and August, and 80% chance during the rest of the year. El Niño could cause average to above-average rain in Central Asia, southern North America, southeast South America, southern Europe, eastern and southern East Africa, and southern and eastern China, while dryer-than-average conditions could occur in Central America, the Caribbean, parts of western and northern East Africa, northern South America, southern Africa, India, Northern China, and Australia. The 2023 Global Report on Food Crises (GRFC) reports that the number of people in GRFC countries and territories facing acute food insecurity has increased to 257.8 million in 2022, more than doubled since 2016. The percentage of the analyzed population in IPC/CH Phase 3 or above has also doubled each year. The causes of this increase are complex and interlinked, with conflicts, national and global economic shocks, and weather extremes acting as mutually reinforcing drivers of acute food insecurity and hunger.

Conflict and insecurity remain the most important drivers, with an estimated 53.2 million internally displaced people in 25 food-crisis countries by the end of 2022. The World Food Programme reported that up to 19 million Sudanese (41% of the population) were struggling to find one meal per day, up from 15 million last year. The violence in Sudan is likely to have large impacts on regional food insecurity, with around 100,000 people having fled to neighboring countries in recent weeks. The global food crisis has been partially worsened by the growing number of food trade restrictions put in place by countries to increase domestic supply and reduce prices.